Market-implied odds of 82% for a Bank of England rate hike in 2026 stem primarily from the ongoing Middle East energy price shock, which has lifted and sustained crude costs, pushing CPI inflation higher after its June decline to 2.6%. The Bank Rate sits at 3.75% following the July MPC's 6-3 hold, with three members already favoring a 25-basis-point increase amid risks of second-round effects. SONIA forwards price Bank Rate at 4.00% by year-end, embedding roughly 25 basis points of tightening despite economist polls favoring a hold through December. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in at least one hike as insurance against persistent inflation pressures above the 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17 MPC decision and incoming CPI releases that will clarify the energy pass-through trajectory.