Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s September 17 meeting because the MPC’s July 6-3 hold at 3.75% and subsequent communications signaled a clear preference for additional data before any adjustment. UK CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year in July from 2.6% in June, driven by the Ofgem energy-price-cap increase, yet core inflation stayed near 2.6% while growth remains subdued and labor-market slack persists. Market-implied forward curves reflect only modest tightening priced in through year-end, consistent with the central bank’s emphasis on monitoring Middle East energy volatility rather than reacting to transient shocks. A further sustained spike in oil prices or evidence of broadening wage pressures could still lift the odds of a 25-basis-point hike, but current releases do not yet support that shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in September?
Bank of England decision in September?
No change 96.2%
25 bps increase 2.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$232,833 Vol.
$232,833 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
96%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 96.2%
25 bps increase 2.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$232,833 Vol.
$232,833 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,415 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$17,778 Vol.
<1%
No change
$126,648 Vol.
96%
25 bps increase
$59,521 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$13,472 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s September 17 meeting because the MPC’s July 6-3 hold at 3.75% and subsequent communications signaled a clear preference for additional data before any adjustment. UK CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year in July from 2.6% in June, driven by the Ofgem energy-price-cap increase, yet core inflation stayed near 2.6% while growth remains subdued and labor-market slack persists. Market-implied forward curves reflect only modest tightening priced in through year-end, consistent with the central bank’s emphasis on monitoring Middle East energy volatility rather than reacting to transient shocks. A further sustained spike in oil prices or evidence of broadening wage pressures could still lift the odds of a 25-basis-point hike, but current releases do not yet support that shift.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$232,833End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s September 17 meeting because the MPC’s July 6-3 hold at 3.75% and subsequent communications signaled a clear preference for additional data before any adjustment. UK CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year in July from 2.6% in June, driven by the Ofgem energy-price-cap increase, yet core inflation stayed near 2.6% while growth remains subdued and labor-market slack persists. Market-implied forward curves reflect only modest tightening priced in through year-end, consistent with the central bank’s emphasis on monitoring Middle East energy volatility rather than reacting to transient shocks. A further sustained spike in oil prices or evidence of broadening wage pressures could still lift the odds of a 25-basis-point hike, but current releases do not yet support that shift.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$232,833End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s September 17 meeting because the MPC’s July 6-3 hold at 3.75% and subsequent communications signaled a clear preference for additional data before any adjustment. UK CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year in July from 2.6% in June, driven by the Ofgem energy-price-cap increase, yet core inflation stayed near 2.6% while growth remains subdued and labor-market slack persists. Market-implied forward curves reflect only modest tightening priced in through year-end, consistent with the central bank’s emphasis on monitoring Middle East energy volatility rather than reacting to transient shocks. A further sustained spike in oil prices or evidence of broadening wage pressures could still lift the odds of a 25-basis-point hike, but current releases do not yet support that shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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