Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.1% in August, with the Bank of England now projecting a rise above 3.75% in Q4 2026 and over 4% in early 2027—well above the 2% target. This trajectory, absent clear second-round effects in wages or pricing so far, has driven market-implied odds to 91.5% for a 25 basis point hike at the November 5 decision from the current 3.75% Bank Rate. The September 6-3 hold vote, with three hawkish members favoring an immediate increase, plus recent policymaker comments, underpin the consensus. October CPI data and the October 28 Autumn Budget remain key near-term inputs, while a rapid easing in oil and gas prices could still temper the case for tightening.