Recent soft Canadian labor market data, including a sharp September employment decline of 68,300 jobs—the largest year-to-date drop since 2020—and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, have anchored market-implied odds for no change at the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision near 82%. Persistent headline inflation near 3% and upside risks from energy prices and tariffs have kept a modest 15.6% implied probability on a 25-basis-point hike, yet weaker growth momentum and below-neutral policy settings appear to outweigh those concerns for most traders. The October 19 CPI release and accompanying Monetary Policy Report will provide the next key inputs ahead of the announcement.