Recent soft Canadian labor market data, including a second consecutive monthly decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent, has reinforced trader expectations that the Bank of Canada will hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25 percent on October 28. Persistent energy-driven inflation risks from elevated oil prices remain a key concern for policymakers, yet the still-soft economy and trade-related uncertainties have kept market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike limited to around 18 percent. September CPI data due October 19 and the Bank’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey will provide the final inputs ahead of the decision, with most economists forecasting no change this month while leaving open the possibility of modest tightening beginning in 2027.