Brazil’s central bank delivered the widely anticipated 25 basis point Selic cut to 13.75% on September 16, reflecting broad trader consensus on cooling inflation and moderating growth. August IPCA data showed a 0.32% monthly deflation and a 12-month rate of 4.22%, while second-quarter GDP and consumption figures pointed to a gradual loss of economic momentum. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter-point reduction since March, bringing cumulative easing to 125 basis points amid still-elevated real rates. The unanimous Copom decision aligned with near-universal economist forecasts despite external volatility from Middle East tensions and simultaneous U.S. rate hikes. Scenarios that could have disrupted the outcome include sharper upside surprises in inflation expectations or a sudden reversal in domestic activity data.