Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Sports·Soccer

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

icon for Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Sports·Soccer

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Harry Kane 64.6%

Lamine Yamal 14.0%

Kylian Mbappé 8.0%

Rodri 6%

Polymarket

$32,678,930 Vol.

Harry Kane 64.6%

Lamine Yamal 14.0%

Kylian Mbappé 8.0%

Rodri 6%

Polymarket

$32,678,930 Vol.

Harry Kane

$3,986,994 Vol.

65%

Lamine Yamal

$2,099,291 Vol.

14%

Kylian Mbappé

$1,941,459 Vol.

8%

Rodri

$1,422,351 Vol.

6%

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

$1,403,184 Vol.

3%

Lionel Messi

$2,282,012 Vol.

3%

Fabian Ruiz

$1,084,055 Vol.

2%

Ousmane Dembélé

$2,150,912 Vol.

1%

Erling Haaland

$1,488,097 Vol.

<1%

Jude Bellingham

$1,197,262 Vol.

<1%

Vitinha

$801,621 Vol.

<1%

Michael Olise

$1,404,032 Vol.

<1%

Mohamed Salah

$1,058,734 Vol.

<1%

Vinícius Júnior

$1,068,433 Vol.

<1%

Pedri

$886,501 Vol.

<1%

Cole Palmer

$681,943 Vol.

<1%

Declan Rice

$854,946 Vol.

<1%

Julian Alvarez

$737,173 Vol.

<1%

Raphinha

$695,112 Vol.

<1%

Bruno Fernandes

$711,222 Vol.

<1%

Lautaro Martinez

$489,013 Vol.

<1%

Cristiano Ronaldo

$473,380 Vol.

<1%

Enzo Fernandez

$75,071 Vol.

<1%

Federico Valverde

$448,093 Vol.

<1%

Desire Doue

$743,542 Vol.

<1%

Achraf Hakimi

$740,083 Vol.

<1%

Luis Diaz

$440,734 Vol.

<1%

Dominik Szoboszlai

$168,279 Vol.

<1%

Pau Cubarsi

$901,196 Vol.

<1%

Rodrygo

$96,121 Vol.

<1%

Bukayo Saka

$148,088 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d’Or market at 64.6% implied probability, driven by his record 61-goal club season for Bayern Munich that delivered the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and European Golden Shoe, plus six World Cup goals as England captain reached the semifinals. Trader consensus reflects this consistent output and domestic silverware despite the absence of Champions League or global title success. Lamine Yamal sits second at 14% after starring in Spain’s World Cup triumph and La Liga win, highlighting his rapid emergence. Kylian Mbappé and Rodri follow at lower probabilities, supported by Real Madrid form and Spain’s tournament achievements respectively, while Messi’s late surge remains a distant factor. These probabilities capture the market’s emphasis on volume scoring alongside major competition outcomes heading into the October ceremony.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$32,678,930
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d’Or market at 64.6% implied probability, driven by his record 61-goal club season for Bayern Munich that delivered the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and European Golden Shoe, plus six World Cup goals as England captain reached the semifinals. Trader consensus reflects this consistent output and domestic silverware despite the absence of Champions League or global title success. Lamine Yamal sits second at 14% after starring in Spain’s World Cup triumph and La Liga win, highlighting his rapid emergence. Kylian Mbappé and Rodri follow at lower probabilities, supported by Real Madrid form and Spain’s tournament achievements respectively, while Messi’s late surge remains a distant factor. These probabilities capture the market’s emphasis on volume scoring alongside major competition outcomes heading into the October ceremony.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$32,678,930
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Related

icon for Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

96%
icon for Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

98%
icon for Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP?

Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP?

14%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Harry Kane" at 65%, followed by "Lamine Yamal" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" has generated $32.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" is "Harry Kane" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lamine Yamal" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.