Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and Houthi threats represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risks. Houthis have repeatedly warned of potential shutdowns targeting Israeli-linked or Western vessels, with recent June 2026 statements reaffirming missile strikes and bans amid broader escalation, though the strait remains open to commercial traffic. Effective closure would disrupt roughly 8-9 million barrels per day of oil and refined products transiting to Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal, forcing costly reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10-14 days and elevate freight rates, bunker fuel costs, and war-risk insurance premiums. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around escalation thresholds, with key swing factors including any U.S. or Israeli responses, Iranian proxy coordination, and upcoming diplomatic or military developments that could either de-escalate or trigger full blockade measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$4,807,556 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
June 15
<1%
June 22
1%
June 30
2%
September 30
15%
$4,807,556 Vol.
June 15
$187,868 Vol.
<1%
June 22
$89,413 Vol.
1%
June 30
$926,670 Vol.
2%
September 30
$287,240 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and Houthi threats represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risks. Houthis have repeatedly warned of potential shutdowns targeting Israeli-linked or Western vessels, with recent June 2026 statements reaffirming missile strikes and bans amid broader escalation, though the strait remains open to commercial traffic. Effective closure would disrupt roughly 8-9 million barrels per day of oil and refined products transiting to Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal, forcing costly reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10-14 days and elevate freight rates, bunker fuel costs, and war-risk insurance premiums. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around escalation thresholds, with key swing factors including any U.S. or Israeli responses, Iranian proxy coordination, and upcoming diplomatic or military developments that could either de-escalate or trigger full blockade measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volume
$4,807,556End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and Houthi threats represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risks. Houthis have repeatedly warned of potential shutdowns targeting Israeli-linked or Western vessels, with recent June 2026 statements reaffirming missile strikes and bans amid broader escalation, though the strait remains open to commercial traffic. Effective closure would disrupt roughly 8-9 million barrels per day of oil and refined products transiting to Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal, forcing costly reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10-14 days and elevate freight rates, bunker fuel costs, and war-risk insurance premiums. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around escalation thresholds, with key swing factors including any U.S. or Israeli responses, Iranian proxy coordination, and upcoming diplomatic or military developments that could either de-escalate or trigger full blockade measures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$4,807,556End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and Houthi threats represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb closure risks. Houthis have repeatedly warned of potential shutdowns targeting Israeli-linked or Western vessels, with recent June 2026 statements reaffirming missile strikes and bans amid broader escalation, though the strait remains open to commercial traffic. Effective closure would disrupt roughly 8-9 million barrels per day of oil and refined products transiting to Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal, forcing costly reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10-14 days and elevate freight rates, bunker fuel costs, and war-risk insurance premiums. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around escalation thresholds, with key swing factors including any U.S. or Israeli responses, Iranian proxy coordination, and upcoming diplomatic or military developments that could either de-escalate or trigger full blockade measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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