Yemeni government forces, backed by Saudi airstrikes, launched a major counteroffensive in early October 2026, claiming rapid gains that recaptured Dhubab district, Mocha, and key coastal positions at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait’s narrowest point, pushing back Houthi fighters who had seized those areas in September. The Houthis dispute the advances, deny loss of control, and continue drone and missile strikes on Saudi targets while retaining inland launch capability. These shifts occur against the backdrop of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, renewed Yemeni civil war fighting, and Houthi declarations of a Saudi shipping blockade that previously halved Red Sea transits without a formal strait closure. Shipping volumes remain reduced and volatile but ongoing, with no international authority declaring the route closed. Trader focus centers on whether sustained government control or persistent Houthi attacks determine effective closure risk.