Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi air strikes launched a counteroffensive in early October 2026, claiming recapture of key coastal positions in Dhubab district and advances toward Mocha that could reduce Houthi territorial leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb approaches. Houthis dispute these gains, retain missile and drone reach from inland or retained sites, and continue selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels following their September seizures of Mocha, Perim Island, and nearby islands. Satellite tracking shows transits well below historical norms—often 40-60% lower—but above the low-volume thresholds that would meet common "effective closure" criteria such as a seven-day average of 10 or fewer arrivals. International naval escort signals and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope continue to shape risk assessments, while the broader Yemen escalation ties into regional dynamics involving Iran and Gulf energy flows. These battlefield shifts and persistent threat capabilities are the main drivers of current trader consensus on closure probabilities.