**Recent parliamentary elections on September 23, 2026, decisively shifted Morocco’s political landscape and explain the elevated implied probability.** Aziz Akhannouch’s National Rally of Independents (RNI) lost a third of its seats, falling to 66 from 102 in 2021, while the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) secured 97 seats and first place. King Mohammed VI appointed PAM’s Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri as prime minister on September 29, tasking her with forming the next government under constitutional rules that direct the appointment to the leading party. Akhannouch’s party finished behind PAM despite prior coalition participation, reflecting voter dissatisfaction amid low turnout of roughly 38 percent. El Mansouri’s designation positions her to lead coalition talks, with Akhannouch expected to serve only in a transitional caretaker role until the cabinet is approved. These confirmed electoral and royal actions have anchored trader expectations that he will leave office well before the December 31, 2026, resolution date.