Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, 2026, reflecting verified satellite and AIS tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic and TankerTrackers.com amid Iran's blockade during the US-Iran conflict that began late February. Daily transits collapsed over 95% from pre-war norms of 120+ vessels, averaging 2-6 ships through early April, with April 1-2 logging just 9-10 amid tightly controlled IRGC passage—directly supporting the low bin. A recent US-Iran two-week ceasefire announced April 7 could boost future flows, but April 3 data remains firmly subdued. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in the market's IMF PortWatch resolution source or overlooked transits, though multi-source confirmation minimizes this risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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