No US state legislature has introduced, advanced, or scheduled a formal vote on any bill or resolution seeking secession from the United States, leaving the market's 99.6% trader consensus for "No" anchored in the absence of legislative action ahead of the June 30, 2026 deadline. State sessions have instead prioritized elections, budgets, and routine policy matters, while longstanding constitutional barriers—including Supreme Court precedent on the permanence of the Union and congressional approval requirements under Article IV—discourage formal consideration. Sporadic polling shows limited public interest in independence concepts in states such as California and Texas, yet these views have produced no floor votes. With roughly two weeks remaining, any shift would require an unforeseen emergency session or procedural surprise, scenarios viewed as highly improbable by market participants.