The reopening of the criminal probe into the Cornell 7, coupled with New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s appointment of Attorney General Letitia James as special prosecutor in early October 2026, has kept the case in the spotlight following the September civil lawsuit. Yet traders assign a 70.5% implied probability to “No” largely because the Tompkins County DA’s initial 2024 review found the victim’s sworn statement did not support felony charges, and recent statements highlight significant discrepancies between that account and the civil allegations. Internal university discipline resulted in only two expulsions, while the accused maintain their denials and the grand-jury process remains uncertain. Upcoming developments in the special prosecutor’s review will be the key swing factor.