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icon for Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?
Politics·Airspace

Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?

icon for Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?
Politics·Airspace

Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?

$390,513 Vol.

Jun 9, 2026
Polymarket

$390,513 Vol.

Polymarket

June 8

$322,706 Vol.

Yes

June 9

$13,657 Vol.

Yes

June 10

$4,069 Vol.

Yes

June 11

$4,625 Vol.

Yes

June 12

$26,967 Vol.

Yes

June 15

$8,185 Vol.

Yes

June 30

$10,304 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have repeatedly disrupted operations at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), including a roughly two-month suspension of commercial flights earlier in 2026 that ended with a gradual resumption of limited international and regional service on April 25. Trader positioning on near-term departure dates reflects ongoing monitoring of airspace restrictions, airline scheduling decisions by carriers such as Iran Air and Mahan Air, and any signals of renewed escalation or de-escalation in the region. Current live flight data shows scheduled departures and arrivals continuing into June, supporting elevated implied probabilities for activity by mid-month and through June 30. Key variables that could shift outcomes include diplomatic engagements between the United States and Iranian officials, developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz, or new military or security measures that prompt further suspensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count.

The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.
Volume
$390,513
End Date
Jul 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 10:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have repeatedly disrupted operations at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), including a roughly two-month suspension of commercial flights earlier in 2026 that ended with a gradual resumption of limited international and regional service on April 25. Trader positioning on near-term departure dates reflects ongoing monitoring of airspace restrictions, airline scheduling decisions by carriers such as Iran Air and Mahan Air, and any signals of renewed escalation or de-escalation in the region. Current live flight data shows scheduled departures and arrivals continuing into June, supporting elevated implied probabilities for activity by mid-month and through June 30. Key variables that could shift outcomes include diplomatic engagements between the United States and Iranian officials, developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz, or new military or security measures that prompt further suspensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count.

The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.
Volume
$390,513
End Date
Jul 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 10:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs from Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that IKA has reopened alone will not qualify. Only the time of takeoff will be considered for this market. Gate departure will not count. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OIIE); however, information from IKA and Iranian government, including the Civil Aviation Authority of Iran, will be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 8" at 100%, followed by "June 9" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" has generated $390.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" is "June 8" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 9" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.