Mary Peltola holds a strong lead in trader consensus for the Alaska Senate seat due to her dominant primary performance and consistent advantages in recent polling under ranked-choice voting. In the August top-four primary, she captured 49.5% of the vote compared to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%, advancing alongside two Republican challengers whose presence fragments the GOP vote. Multiple September and early October surveys, including those from AARP, New York Times/Siena, and Alaska Survey Research, show Peltola ahead or tied after RCV reallocations, with notable strength among independents and younger voters. Race ratings from outlets such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball have shifted to Lean Democratic, reflecting these trends ahead of the November 3 general election. Minor candidates remain negligible in both polling and market pricing.