Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race with a substantial polling edge and strong primary performance, driving trader consensus toward her victory in the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. She captured 49.5% in the August top-four primary compared to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%, advancing alongside minor Republican candidates Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes. Recent surveys, including New York Times/Siena and AARP polls, show Peltola ahead or tied in first-round preferences and extending that margin after RCV reallocations, with advantages among independents and younger voters. Nonpartisan ratings reflect the shift, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball moving the contest to Lean Democratic. Sullivan’s incumbency and Republican base provide counterbalance in the Trump-won state, yet Peltola’s fundraising lead and the vote-splitting potential of other candidates on the ballot sustain her favored positioning ahead of early voting.