**AfD secured the largest share of seats in two of the three German state elections held in September 2026, driving the market’s near-certain pricing on outcome 2.** Saxony-Anhalt voted on September 6, where AfD captured roughly 44% and finished well ahead of the CDU. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania followed on September 20, with AfD at approximately 38% ahead of the SPD. In Berlin the same day, Die Linke led with around 25% while AfD placed lower. These eastern-state results reflect sustained voter shifts toward AfD on immigration enforcement, economic concerns, and dissatisfaction with the federal CDU-led government, consistent with the party’s national polling strength. Other parties’ refusal to form coalitions with AfD has not altered the seat-plurality outcome. Late adjustments to final tallies or differing interpretations of “most seats” remain the only realistic paths that could alter the count, though current verified results align tightly with the dominant market position.