Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on April 30 drove Polymarket's "Yes" outcome to a 100% implied probability, reflecting unanimous trader consensus after the company delivered a double beat versus analyst estimates—topping revenue projections around $109 billion and EPS expectations near $1.95 per share—for its record-best March quarter. Robust Services growth, an all-time high active installed base, and a new $100 billion share buyback announcement amid resilient iPhone demand fueled the surge, building on Q1's strong performance. Tail risks remain negligible but could include post-release scrutiny over China exposure or potential GAAP restatements; the upcoming conference call at 5 p.m. ET may provide further clarity on guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,239 Vol.
$14,239 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$14,239 Vol.
$14,239 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on April 30 drove Polymarket's "Yes" outcome to a 100% implied probability, reflecting unanimous trader consensus after the company delivered a double beat versus analyst estimates—topping revenue projections around $109 billion and EPS expectations near $1.95 per share—for its record-best March quarter. Robust Services growth, an all-time high active installed base, and a new $100 billion share buyback announcement amid resilient iPhone demand fueled the surge, building on Q1's strong performance. Tail risks remain negligible but could include post-release scrutiny over China exposure or potential GAAP restatements; the upcoming conference call at 5 p.m. ET may provide further clarity on guidance.
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$14,239End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on April 30 drove Polymarket's "Yes" outcome to a 100% implied probability, reflecting unanimous trader consensus after the company delivered a double beat versus analyst estimates—topping revenue projections around $109 billion and EPS expectations near $1.95 per share—for its record-best March quarter. Robust Services growth, an all-time high active installed base, and a new $100 billion share buyback announcement amid resilient iPhone demand fueled the surge, building on Q1's strong performance. Tail risks remain negligible but could include post-release scrutiny over China exposure or potential GAAP restatements; the upcoming conference call at 5 p.m. ET may provide further clarity on guidance.
As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$14,239End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on April 30 drove Polymarket's "Yes" outcome to a 100% implied probability, reflecting unanimous trader consensus after the company delivered a double beat versus analyst estimates—topping revenue projections around $109 billion and EPS expectations near $1.95 per share—for its record-best March quarter. Robust Services growth, an all-time high active installed base, and a new $100 billion share buyback announcement amid resilient iPhone demand fueled the surge, building on Q1's strong performance. Tail risks remain negligible but could include post-release scrutiny over China exposure or potential GAAP restatements; the upcoming conference call at 5 p.m. ET may provide further clarity on guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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