Carlos Alcaraz holds the strongest trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the 2026 US Open title, driven by his two prior victories at Flushing Meadows, including last year’s final win, combined with Jannik Sinner’s pre-tournament withdrawal due to knee injury. Despite a four-month absence from right wrist issues, Alcaraz has shown sharp form in early rounds, dropping just one set through the fourth round. Alexander Zverev sits at 22.6% after claiming his maiden major at the French Open and reaching the Wimbledon final, though his hard-court results this summer have been mixed and early US Open matches extended to five sets. Ben Shelton at 9.8% and other Americans like Frances Tiafoe benefit from home-crowd support and recent deep runs, while lower-priced names face narrow paths against the top seeds’ experience and draw positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Alcaraz 57%
Alexander Zverev 22.6%
Ben Shelton 9.6%
Frances Tiafoe 3.5%
$21,941,528 Vol.
$21,941,528 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
57%
Alexander Zverev
23%
Ben Shelton
10%
Frances Tiafoe
3%
Learner Tien
3%
Alex Michelsen
2%
Alexander Blockx
1%
Karen Khachanov
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Luciano Darderi
<1%
Casper Ruud
<1%
Carlos Alcaraz 57%
Alexander Zverev 22.6%
Ben Shelton 9.6%
Frances Tiafoe 3.5%
$21,941,528 Vol.
$21,941,528 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
57%
Alexander Zverev
23%
Ben Shelton
10%
Frances Tiafoe
3%
Learner Tien
3%
Alex Michelsen
2%
Alexander Blockx
1%
Karen Khachanov
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Luciano Darderi
<1%
Casper Ruud
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Carlos Alcaraz holds the strongest trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the 2026 US Open title, driven by his two prior victories at Flushing Meadows, including last year’s final win, combined with Jannik Sinner’s pre-tournament withdrawal due to knee injury. Despite a four-month absence from right wrist issues, Alcaraz has shown sharp form in early rounds, dropping just one set through the fourth round. Alexander Zverev sits at 22.6% after claiming his maiden major at the French Open and reaching the Wimbledon final, though his hard-court results this summer have been mixed and early US Open matches extended to five sets. Ben Shelton at 9.8% and other Americans like Frances Tiafoe benefit from home-crowd support and recent deep runs, while lower-priced names face narrow paths against the top seeds’ experience and draw positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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