Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 17.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, top FIFA ranking, and dominant UEFA qualifiers, but France trails closely at 16.4% thanks to consistent knockout pedigree and squad depth despite minor injury concerns like Hugo Ekitike's absence. The race stays tight post the late-March draw for the expanded 48-team format, which introduces more group stage matches and variance for upsets, while Argentina (8.8%) leverages CONMEBOL-topping qualifiers and defending champion status amid aging stars and injury worries, and England (11.1%) boasts peak-generation talent without a clear path advantage. Brazil's dip to 8.5% reflects Rodrygo's recent ACL ruling him out, offsetting traditional firepower in a parity-driven field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 17.3%
France 16.4%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.8%
$659,029,231 Vol.
$659,029,231 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
8%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 17.3%
France 16.4%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.8%
$659,029,231 Vol.
$659,029,231 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
8%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 17.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, top FIFA ranking, and dominant UEFA qualifiers, but France trails closely at 16.4% thanks to consistent knockout pedigree and squad depth despite minor injury concerns like Hugo Ekitike's absence. The race stays tight post the late-March draw for the expanded 48-team format, which introduces more group stage matches and variance for upsets, while Argentina (8.8%) leverages CONMEBOL-topping qualifiers and defending champion status amid aging stars and injury worries, and England (11.1%) boasts peak-generation talent without a clear path advantage. Brazil's dip to 8.5% reflects Rodrygo's recent ACL ruling him out, offsetting traditional firepower in a parity-driven field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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