Spain's flawless UEFA qualifying campaign and Euro 2024 triumph position them as slim trader favorites at 17.2% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with France close behind at 16.2% after recent international wins over Brazil and Colombia that boosted their momentum heading into the finals. England (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (8.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) keep the top tightly bunched, as CONMEBOL's grueling table saw South American giants stumble late while posting solid overall records; the expanded 48-team format's extended group stage and knockout rounds amplify upset risks, balanced draws pit powerhouses against mid-tier threats, and star players like Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, and Lionel Messi maintain depth across contenders despite no major injuries in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 17.1%
France 16.2%
England 10.9%
Argentina 8.8%
$678,424,856 Vol.
$678,424,856 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Morocco
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 17.1%
France 16.2%
England 10.9%
Argentina 8.8%
$678,424,856 Vol.
$678,424,856 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Morocco
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's flawless UEFA qualifying campaign and Euro 2024 triumph position them as slim trader favorites at 17.2% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with France close behind at 16.2% after recent international wins over Brazil and Colombia that boosted their momentum heading into the finals. England (10.9%), defending champions Argentina (8.8%), and Brazil (8.6%) keep the top tightly bunched, as CONMEBOL's grueling table saw South American giants stumble late while posting solid overall records; the expanded 48-team format's extended group stage and knockout rounds amplify upset risks, balanced draws pit powerhouses against mid-tier threats, and star players like Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, and Lionel Messi maintain depth across contenders despite no major injuries in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions