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icon for 2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 98.2%

3rd hottest 1.7%

4th or lower <1%

2nd hottest <1%

Polymarket

$2,268 Vol.

1st hottest 98.2%

3rd hottest 1.7%

4th or lower <1%

2nd hottest <1%

Polymarket

$2,268 Vol.

1st hottest

$764 Vol.

98%

2nd hottest

$563 Vol.

<1%

3rd hottest

$526 Vol.

2%

4th or lower

$415 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**August 2026 set a new global surface temperature record as the warmest August in the instrumental era, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) ERA5 reanalysis, the primary dataset used for such rankings.** The month reached approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the prior August 2024 benchmark by a substantial margin amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño event that amplified ocean heat content. Daily extra-polar sea surface temperatures hit an all-time high of 21.1°C on August 22—surpassing the March 2024 peak—while land and ocean anomalies aligned to produce the highest monthly global mean on record at roughly 16.96°C. This outcome reflects the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and the emerging El Niño, which boosted tropical Pacific temperatures and shifted atmospheric circulation patterns. Historical context shows August normally ranks among the warmest months seasonally, yet 2026 surpassed prior peaks by a clear margin across multiple indicators, including widespread Northern Hemisphere heatwaves. Trader consensus at 98.2% for first-hottest reflects these verified observations and the low likelihood of dataset revisions overturning the ranking. Realistic challenges include minor adjustments in final processing from agencies like NASA GISS or NOAA, or divergent rankings in satellite lower-troposphere records (e.g., UAH placing it second), though surface datasets show a decisive lead unlikely to flip.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,268
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**August 2026 set a new global surface temperature record as the warmest August in the instrumental era, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) ERA5 reanalysis, the primary dataset used for such rankings.** The month reached approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the prior August 2024 benchmark by a substantial margin amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño event that amplified ocean heat content. Daily extra-polar sea surface temperatures hit an all-time high of 21.1°C on August 22—surpassing the March 2024 peak—while land and ocean anomalies aligned to produce the highest monthly global mean on record at roughly 16.96°C. This outcome reflects the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and the emerging El Niño, which boosted tropical Pacific temperatures and shifted atmospheric circulation patterns. Historical context shows August normally ranks among the warmest months seasonally, yet 2026 surpassed prior peaks by a clear margin across multiple indicators, including widespread Northern Hemisphere heatwaves. Trader consensus at 98.2% for first-hottest reflects these verified observations and the low likelihood of dataset revisions overturning the ranking. Realistic challenges include minor adjustments in final processing from agencies like NASA GISS or NOAA, or divergent rankings in satellite lower-troposphere records (e.g., UAH placing it second), though surface datasets show a decisive lead unlikely to flip.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,268
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1st hottest" at 98%, followed by "3rd hottest" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is "1st hottest" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3rd hottest" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.