2024 November hottest on record?
$1,731,794 Vol.
$1,731,794 Vol.
Nov 30, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior November when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior November when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Created At: Nov 6, 2024, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,731,794End Date
Nov 30, 2024Created At
Nov 6, 2024, 11:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
2024 November hottest on record?
$1,731,794 Vol.
$1,731,794 Vol.
Nov 30, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior November when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior November when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
At the point the data for November 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for November, and if 2024 November is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Note: If 2024 November is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,731,794End Date
Nov 30, 2024Created At
Nov 6, 2024, 11:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"2024 November hottest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "2024 November hottest on record?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "2024 November hottest on record?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current probability for "2024 November hottest on record?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.
The resolution rules for "2024 November hottest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.


Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions