USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release on Earth’s crust. The highest reliably recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along Chile’s subduction zone, with subsequent maxima reaching only 9.2–9.5 in comparable settings. This physical constraint, reinforced by moment-magnitude scaling relationships and global seismic monitoring, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. While an extraterrestrial impact could theoretically produce extreme shaking, it falls outside standard tectonic resolution criteria and has no supporting observational data in current USGS or international catalogs. No new fault discoveries or model revisions alter this baseline outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release on Earth’s crust. The highest reliably recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along Chile’s subduction zone, with subsequent maxima reaching only 9.2–9.5 in comparable settings. This physical constraint, reinforced by moment-magnitude scaling relationships and global seismic monitoring, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. While an extraterrestrial impact could theoretically produce extreme shaking, it falls outside standard tectonic resolution criteria and has no supporting observational data in current USGS or international catalogs. No new fault discoveries or model revisions alter this baseline outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release on Earth’s crust. The highest reliably recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along Chile’s subduction zone, with subsequent maxima reaching only 9.2–9.5 in comparable settings. This physical constraint, reinforced by moment-magnitude scaling relationships and global seismic monitoring, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. While an extraterrestrial impact could theoretically produce extreme shaking, it falls outside standard tectonic resolution criteria and has no supporting observational data in current USGS or international catalogs. No new fault discoveries or model revisions alter this baseline outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release on Earth’s crust. The highest reliably recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along Chile’s subduction zone, with subsequent maxima reaching only 9.2–9.5 in comparable settings. This physical constraint, reinforced by moment-magnitude scaling relationships and global seismic monitoring, underpins the 99.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. While an extraterrestrial impact could theoretically produce extreme shaking, it falls outside standard tectonic resolution criteria and has no supporting observational data in current USGS or international catalogs. No new fault discoveries or model revisions alter this baseline outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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