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Política·Irán

¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?

icon for ¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?
Política·Irán

¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?

Sí

0.1%
Polymarket

$30,618 Vol.

Sí

0.1%
Polymarket

$30,618 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached in mid-June 2026.** On June 15, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance digitally signed the MOU alongside Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The document addresses lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60 days of nuclear talks; a formal signing ceremony was set for Friday, June 19, in Geneva. **Vance has led aspects of the talks and publicly detailed the agreement in interviews on June 16, emphasizing no US funds to Iran and IAEA inspectors returning to dismantle enriched uranium stockpiles.** However, the initial signing was virtual/digital, with no confirmed in-person meetings or travel by Vance to Iran or third-party locations involving Iranian officials between June 18–20. Reports focus on ongoing technical negotiations rather than immediate high-level bilateral contact. **With the June 20 deadline only two days away and no verified schedule for Vance to attend the Geneva ceremony or conduct direct diplomacy, traders assess physical contact as unlikely.** The 67.5% implied probability on “No” reflects the compressed timeline, preference for virtual or indirect channels so far, and absence of any reported plans for Vance to shake hands with Iranian representatives before resolution. Late developments, such as an unscheduled appearance or rapid in-person escalation, remain possible but have not materialized in reporting through June 18.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify.

Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video.

Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.

The resolution source will be photo or video.
Volumen
$30,618
Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 15, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached in mid-June 2026.** On June 15, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance digitally signed the MOU alongside Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The document addresses lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60 days of nuclear talks; a formal signing ceremony was set for Friday, June 19, in Geneva. **Vance has led aspects of the talks and publicly detailed the agreement in interviews on June 16, emphasizing no US funds to Iran and IAEA inspectors returning to dismantle enriched uranium stockpiles.** However, the initial signing was virtual/digital, with no confirmed in-person meetings or travel by Vance to Iran or third-party locations involving Iranian officials between June 18–20. Reports focus on ongoing technical negotiations rather than immediate high-level bilateral contact. **With the June 20 deadline only two days away and no verified schedule for Vance to attend the Geneva ceremony or conduct direct diplomacy, traders assess physical contact as unlikely.** The 67.5% implied probability on “No” reflects the compressed timeline, preference for virtual or indirect channels so far, and absence of any reported plans for Vance to shake hands with Iranian representatives before resolution. Late developments, such as an unscheduled appearance or rapid in-person escalation, remain possible but have not materialized in reporting through June 18.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify.

Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video.

Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.

The resolution source will be photo or video.
Volumen
$30,618
Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 15, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Le dará la mano Vance a un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 0¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 0% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?" ha generado $30.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jun 15, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?" es "¿Le dará la mano Vance a un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?" con solo 0%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Vance estrechará la mano de un funcionario iraní antes del 20 de junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.