The Senate faces a compressed calendar before the September 30 deadline, with the recently enacted continuing resolution extending baseline funding only through December 11 and deliberately excluding any supplemental package. The administration’s late-June $87.6 billion request—centered on roughly $67 billion for Defense Department costs tied to Operation Epic Fury in Iran—has encountered bipartisan resistance, including Democratic concerns over unspent prior-year balances and Republican skepticism reflected in the summer war-powers vote. Senate Appropriations Committee deliberations have not advanced a standalone measure, and procedural hurdles plus cross-aisle reluctance to attach new war-related funding before the fiscal-year close have kept passage unlikely. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a strong implied probability.