Recent local polling in Clacton shows Nigel Farage leading with around 73% support ahead of the 13 August by-election, a substantial increase from his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election. This reflects sustained Reform UK backing in the constituency, a fragmented field of 34 candidates that dilutes opposition votes, and the campaign framing of the contest as a direct voter mandate following his resignation. National Reform voting intentions have held steady near 26%, providing a favorable base rate for an incumbent-style performance in this seat. Trader consensus at 95.5% yes aligns with these indicators, though outcomes could shift if turnout deviates sharply from polled expectations or if unforeseen late developments alter local dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Nigel Farage aumentará su participación de voto en Clacton?
¿Nigel Farage aumentará su participación de voto en Clacton?
Sí
$21,777 Vol.
$21,777 Vol.
13 ago 2026
Sí
$21,777 Vol.
$21,777 Vol.
13 ago 2026
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent local polling in Clacton shows Nigel Farage leading with around 73% support ahead of the 13 August by-election, a substantial increase from his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election. This reflects sustained Reform UK backing in the constituency, a fragmented field of 34 candidates that dilutes opposition votes, and the campaign framing of the contest as a direct voter mandate following his resignation. National Reform voting intentions have held steady near 26%, providing a favorable base rate for an incumbent-style performance in this seat. Trader consensus at 95.5% yes aligns with these indicators, though outcomes could shift if turnout deviates sharply from polled expectations or if unforeseen late developments alter local dynamics.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volumen
$21,777Fecha de finalización
13 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Recent local polling in Clacton shows Nigel Farage leading with around 73% support ahead of the 13 August by-election, a substantial increase from his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election. This reflects sustained Reform UK backing in the constituency, a fragmented field of 34 candidates that dilutes opposition votes, and the campaign framing of the contest as a direct voter mandate following his resignation. National Reform voting intentions have held steady near 26%, providing a favorable base rate for an incumbent-style performance in this seat. Trader consensus at 95.5% yes aligns with these indicators, though outcomes could shift if turnout deviates sharply from polled expectations or if unforeseen late developments alter local dynamics.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volumen
$21,777Fecha de finalización
13 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent local polling in Clacton shows Nigel Farage leading with around 73% support ahead of the 13 August by-election, a substantial increase from his 46.2% share in the 2024 general election. This reflects sustained Reform UK backing in the constituency, a fragmented field of 34 candidates that dilutes opposition votes, and the campaign framing of the contest as a direct voter mandate following his resignation. National Reform voting intentions have held steady near 26%, providing a favorable base rate for an incumbent-style performance in this seat. Trader consensus at 95.5% yes aligns with these indicators, though outcomes could shift if turnout deviates sharply from polled expectations or if unforeseen late developments alter local dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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