Apple’s ongoing efforts to diversify DRAM sourcing amid AI-driven shortages and steep price increases have prompted testing of CXMT memory for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. regulatory assurances, yet the 75.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 purchase reflect persistent barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list with Entity List risks, drawing congressional opposition and Micron pushback, while its fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity booked through 2027. These factors limit near-term supply availability for Apple despite CXMT’s LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 progress and 10% global DRAM share. Upcoming White House decisions on approvals and any capacity expansions represent the main catalysts that could shift sentiment before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
25% probabilidad
$21,395 Vol.
$21,395 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
25% probabilidad
$21,395 Vol.
$21,395 Vol.
31 dic 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple’s ongoing efforts to diversify DRAM sourcing amid AI-driven shortages and steep price increases have prompted testing of CXMT memory for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. regulatory assurances, yet the 75.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 purchase reflect persistent barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list with Entity List risks, drawing congressional opposition and Micron pushback, while its fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity booked through 2027. These factors limit near-term supply availability for Apple despite CXMT’s LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 progress and 10% global DRAM share. Upcoming White House decisions on approvals and any capacity expansions represent the main catalysts that could shift sentiment before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volumen
$21,395Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple’s ongoing efforts to diversify DRAM sourcing amid AI-driven shortages and steep price increases have prompted testing of CXMT memory for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. regulatory assurances, yet the 75.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 purchase reflect persistent barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list with Entity List risks, drawing congressional opposition and Micron pushback, while its fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity booked through 2027. These factors limit near-term supply availability for Apple despite CXMT’s LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 progress and 10% global DRAM share. Upcoming White House decisions on approvals and any capacity expansions represent the main catalysts that could shift sentiment before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$21,395Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s ongoing efforts to diversify DRAM sourcing amid AI-driven shortages and steep price increases have prompted testing of CXMT memory for China-market devices and lobbying for U.S. regulatory assurances, yet the 75.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 purchase reflect persistent barriers. CXMT remains on the Pentagon’s 1260H list with Entity List risks, drawing congressional opposition and Micron pushback, while its fabs operate near 95% utilization with capacity booked through 2027. These factors limit near-term supply availability for Apple despite CXMT’s LPDDR5X/LPDDR6 progress and 10% global DRAM share. Upcoming White House decisions on approvals and any capacity expansions represent the main catalysts that could shift sentiment before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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