FIFA President Gianni Infantino has repeatedly confirmed that Iran’s national team will participate in the 2026 World Cup and play its scheduled matches on U.S. soil, directly anchoring trader consensus around no replacement. Recent adjustments, including approval for the squad to base in Tijuana, Mexico, while commuting for games, have resolved logistical and visa hurdles tied to regional tensions. Italian officials publicly dismissed any substitution proposal as inappropriate and unfeasible, reinforcing that qualification occurs on the pitch. With Iran already through the AFC qualifiers on merit, the overwhelming implied probability for no change reflects these explicit governing-body statements and lack of formal proceedings. Only an unforeseen escalation in security or diplomatic conditions would realistically reopen the possibility of a late FIFA intervention.