Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June stands as the primary driver behind its 94.5% market-implied odds for third-highest 2026 debut. That figure topped the prior year leader, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s roughly $132 million April start, while delivering the biggest launch in franchise history and the second-largest animated opening ever behind Incredibles 2. Positive critical reception (93% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained strong holds and reinforced its position among early releases. With several major tentpoles still to open, an upset would require multiple late-2026 films to post domestic starts squarely between Toy Story 5 and the current top two without displacing it from the top three. Traders currently view that scenario as unlikely given the established early-year benchmarks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué película tiene el tercer mayor fin de semana de estreno en 2026?
¿Qué película tiene el tercer mayor fin de semana de estreno en 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.9%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$28,558 Vol.
$28,558 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.9%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$28,558 Vol.
$28,558 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Toy Story 5
$18,669 Vol.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$1,877 Vol.
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,530 Vol.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,436 Vol.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,097 Vol.
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,315 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June stands as the primary driver behind its 94.5% market-implied odds for third-highest 2026 debut. That figure topped the prior year leader, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s roughly $132 million April start, while delivering the biggest launch in franchise history and the second-largest animated opening ever behind Incredibles 2. Positive critical reception (93% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained strong holds and reinforced its position among early releases. With several major tentpoles still to open, an upset would require multiple late-2026 films to post domestic starts squarely between Toy Story 5 and the current top two without displacing it from the top three. Traders currently view that scenario as unlikely given the established early-year benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Volumen
$28,558Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June stands as the primary driver behind its 94.5% market-implied odds for third-highest 2026 debut. That figure topped the prior year leader, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s roughly $132 million April start, while delivering the biggest launch in franchise history and the second-largest animated opening ever behind Incredibles 2. Positive critical reception (93% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained strong holds and reinforced its position among early releases. With several major tentpoles still to open, an upset would require multiple late-2026 films to post domestic starts squarely between Toy Story 5 and the current top two without displacing it from the top three. Traders currently view that scenario as unlikely given the established early-year benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$28,558Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June stands as the primary driver behind its 94.5% market-implied odds for third-highest 2026 debut. That figure topped the prior year leader, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s roughly $132 million April start, while delivering the biggest launch in franchise history and the second-largest animated opening ever behind Incredibles 2. Positive critical reception (93% on Rotten Tomatoes), an “A” CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained strong holds and reinforced its position among early releases. With several major tentpoles still to open, an upset would require multiple late-2026 films to post domestic starts squarely between Toy Story 5 and the current top two without displacing it from the top three. Traders currently view that scenario as unlikely given the established early-year benchmarks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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