Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models have driven the 88% market-implied odds through consistent leaderboard leadership in prompt adherence, native audio synthesis, 4K output, and multimodal editing capabilities, reinforced by ongoing updates through mid-2026 and broad integration across Google products. Traders view these demonstrated strengths—backed by real capital in arenas and production use—as creating a durable edge over competitors. Luma AI, Runway, and Kling trail at single-digit probabilities due to narrower advantages in specific motion or image-to-video tasks, while OpenAI’s Sora line faces an API sunset on September 24 that further weakens its positioning. With resolution approaching at month-end, any late benchmark shifts or major releases could still influence final trader consensus on the leading text-to-video system.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGoogle 88%
Luma AI 3.6%
Runway 3.6%
ByteDance 1.4%
$21,457 Vol.
$21,457 Vol.
30 sep 2026
88%
Luma AI
4%
Runway
4%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Pruna
1%
Pixverse
1%
Tencent
1%
Genmo AI
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
1%
Pika
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 88%
Luma AI 3.6%
Runway 3.6%
ByteDance 1.4%
$21,457 Vol.
$21,457 Vol.
30 sep 2026
$14,226 Vol.
88%
Luma AI
$400 Vol.
4%
Runway
$547 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$982 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$645 Vol.
1%
Pruna
$399 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$370 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$350 Vol.
1%
Genmo AI
$436 Vol.
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$365 Vol.
1%
Pika
$453 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$378 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$413 Vol.
<1%
Kandinsky
$370 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$422 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models have driven the 88% market-implied odds through consistent leaderboard leadership in prompt adherence, native audio synthesis, 4K output, and multimodal editing capabilities, reinforced by ongoing updates through mid-2026 and broad integration across Google products. Traders view these demonstrated strengths—backed by real capital in arenas and production use—as creating a durable edge over competitors. Luma AI, Runway, and Kling trail at single-digit probabilities due to narrower advantages in specific motion or image-to-video tasks, while OpenAI’s Sora line faces an API sunset on September 24 that further weakens its positioning. With resolution approaching at month-end, any late benchmark shifts or major releases could still influence final trader consensus on the leading text-to-video system.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$21,457Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models have driven the 88% market-implied odds through consistent leaderboard leadership in prompt adherence, native audio synthesis, 4K output, and multimodal editing capabilities, reinforced by ongoing updates through mid-2026 and broad integration across Google products. Traders view these demonstrated strengths—backed by real capital in arenas and production use—as creating a durable edge over competitors. Luma AI, Runway, and Kling trail at single-digit probabilities due to narrower advantages in specific motion or image-to-video tasks, while OpenAI’s Sora line faces an API sunset on September 24 that further weakens its positioning. With resolution approaching at month-end, any late benchmark shifts or major releases could still influence final trader consensus on the leading text-to-video system.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,457Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models have driven the 88% market-implied odds through consistent leaderboard leadership in prompt adherence, native audio synthesis, 4K output, and multimodal editing capabilities, reinforced by ongoing updates through mid-2026 and broad integration across Google products. Traders view these demonstrated strengths—backed by real capital in arenas and production use—as creating a durable edge over competitors. Luma AI, Runway, and Kling trail at single-digit probabilities due to narrower advantages in specific motion or image-to-video tasks, while OpenAI’s Sora line faces an API sunset on September 24 that further weakens its positioning. With resolution approaching at month-end, any late benchmark shifts or major releases could still influence final trader consensus on the leading text-to-video system.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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