Anthropic’s commanding 94% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 5 and related variants topping MathArena and Text Arena math leaderboards with scores above 84%, reinforced by the August 11 announcement of an unreleased model advancing the Riemann hypothesis lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. These verified capability gains in competition-style problems and proof-related tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive at roughly 80% on similar evaluations, but trails in the specific arena metrics. A last-minute model release or strong performance surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the remaining weeks could still shift outcomes before end-of-August resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 95%
OpenAI 3.9%
Google 1.4%
Alibaba <1%
$86,611 Vol.
$86,611 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
4%
1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 3.9%
Google 1.4%
Alibaba <1%
$86,611 Vol.
$86,611 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
$29,251 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$11,277 Vol.
4%
$18,113 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$8,798 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,432 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,148 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$372 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$372 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$494 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,079 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,125 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,122 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$553 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$451 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$372 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$564 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$531 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 94% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 5 and related variants topping MathArena and Text Arena math leaderboards with scores above 84%, reinforced by the August 11 announcement of an unreleased model advancing the Riemann hypothesis lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. These verified capability gains in competition-style problems and proof-related tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive at roughly 80% on similar evaluations, but trails in the specific arena metrics. A last-minute model release or strong performance surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the remaining weeks could still shift outcomes before end-of-August resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ET
Volumen
$86,611Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 94% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 5 and related variants topping MathArena and Text Arena math leaderboards with scores above 84%, reinforced by the August 11 announcement of an unreleased model advancing the Riemann hypothesis lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. These verified capability gains in competition-style problems and proof-related tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive at roughly 80% on similar evaluations, but trails in the specific arena metrics. A last-minute model release or strong performance surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the remaining weeks could still shift outcomes before end-of-August resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$86,611Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 94% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 5 and related variants topping MathArena and Text Arena math leaderboards with scores above 84%, reinforced by the August 11 announcement of an unreleased model advancing the Riemann hypothesis lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. These verified capability gains in competition-style problems and proof-related tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive at roughly 80% on similar evaluations, but trails in the specific arena metrics. A last-minute model release or strong performance surge from OpenAI, Google, or another lab in the remaining weeks could still shift outcomes before end-of-August resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes