OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model, released September 3 and quickly claiming the top spot on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an 1800 Elo score as of September 11, drives the 84% market-implied probability. This crowdsourced benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use through over 679,000 community votes, where Astra edges Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 40 points. Traders see limited time for rivals to close the gap before month-end, though Anthropic's 11.5% odds reflect its strong historical positioning and potential for rapid updates. Other labs trail further on the Pareto frontier, underscoring how recent capability demonstrations translate directly into aggregated trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOpenAI 84.1%
Anthropic 12%
SpaceXAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$126,323 Vol.
$126,323 Vol.
30 sep 2026
OpenAI
84%
Anthropic
12%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 84.1%
Anthropic 12%
SpaceXAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$126,323 Vol.
$126,323 Vol.
30 sep 2026
OpenAI
$21,790 Vol.
84%
Anthropic
$51,964 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$5,486 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$7,415 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$19,269 Vol.
1%
$4,324 Vol.
1%
Meta
$3,037 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,750 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model, released September 3 and quickly claiming the top spot on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an 1800 Elo score as of September 11, drives the 84% market-implied probability. This crowdsourced benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use through over 679,000 community votes, where Astra edges Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 40 points. Traders see limited time for rivals to close the gap before month-end, though Anthropic's 11.5% odds reflect its strong historical positioning and potential for rapid updates. Other labs trail further on the Pareto frontier, underscoring how recent capability demonstrations translate directly into aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volumen
$126,323Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model, released September 3 and quickly claiming the top spot on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an 1800 Elo score as of September 11, drives the 84% market-implied probability. This crowdsourced benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use through over 679,000 community votes, where Astra edges Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 40 points. Traders see limited time for rivals to close the gap before month-end, though Anthropic's 11.5% odds reflect its strong historical positioning and potential for rapid updates. Other labs trail further on the Pareto frontier, underscoring how recent capability demonstrations translate directly into aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$126,323Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model, released September 3 and quickly claiming the top spot on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with an 1800 Elo score as of September 11, drives the 84% market-implied probability. This crowdsourced benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use through over 679,000 community votes, where Astra edges Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 by roughly 40 points. Traders see limited time for rivals to close the gap before month-end, though Anthropic's 11.5% odds reflect its strong historical positioning and potential for rapid updates. Other labs trail further on the Pareto frontier, underscoring how recent capability demonstrations translate directly into aggregated trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes