OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its commanding 72.8% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with an 1,797–1,800 Elo score, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 or Opus 5 variants by roughly 35–110 points in crowdsourced agentic frontend coding tasks. Traders view this as evidence of superior multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development performance relative to competitors. Anthropic’s 21% share reflects its strong but secondary standing on the same benchmark, while lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, Meta, and others capture the persistent gap between proprietary frontier models and open-weight alternatives in real-world web app benchmarks. With roughly six weeks until end-of-October resolution, any new model releases or leaderboard shifts could still alter the consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOpenAI 72.8%
Anthropic 21%
Alibaba 4.4%
Google 2.1%
$67,812 Vol.
$67,812 Vol.
31 oct 2026
OpenAI
73%
Anthropic
21%
Alibaba
4%
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
Tencent
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Poolside
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI 72.8%
Anthropic 21%
Alibaba 4.4%
Google 2.1%
$67,812 Vol.
$67,812 Vol.
31 oct 2026
OpenAI
$5,078 Vol.
73%
Anthropic
$49,800 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$1,988 Vol.
4%
$1,628 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$1,701 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$806 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$780 Vol.
1%
Meta
$779 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$773 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$653 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$819 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$668 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$679 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$677 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$387 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$596 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its commanding 72.8% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with an 1,797–1,800 Elo score, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 or Opus 5 variants by roughly 35–110 points in crowdsourced agentic frontend coding tasks. Traders view this as evidence of superior multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development performance relative to competitors. Anthropic’s 21% share reflects its strong but secondary standing on the same benchmark, while lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, Meta, and others capture the persistent gap between proprietary frontier models and open-weight alternatives in real-world web app benchmarks. With roughly six weeks until end-of-October resolution, any new model releases or leaderboard shifts could still alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volumen
$67,812Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its commanding 72.8% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with an 1,797–1,800 Elo score, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 or Opus 5 variants by roughly 35–110 points in crowdsourced agentic frontend coding tasks. Traders view this as evidence of superior multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development performance relative to competitors. Anthropic’s 21% share reflects its strong but secondary standing on the same benchmark, while lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, Meta, and others capture the persistent gap between proprietary frontier models and open-weight alternatives in real-world web app benchmarks. With roughly six weeks until end-of-October resolution, any new model releases or leaderboard shifts could still alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$67,812Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its commanding 72.8% market-implied probability, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with an 1,797–1,800 Elo score, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 or Opus 5 variants by roughly 35–110 points in crowdsourced agentic frontend coding tasks. Traders view this as evidence of superior multi-step reasoning, tool use, and iterative web development performance relative to competitors. Anthropic’s 21% share reflects its strong but secondary standing on the same benchmark, while lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, Meta, and others capture the persistent gap between proprietary frontier models and open-weight alternatives in real-world web app benchmarks. With roughly six weeks until end-of-October resolution, any new model releases or leaderboard shifts could still alter the consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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