Anthropic holds an 83.5% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard at end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases that have delivered leading scores across core benchmarks like reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. This positioning stems from consistent frontier performance and iterative improvements that outpace competitors in independent evaluations, while OpenAI sits at just 10% amid slower recent gains relative to the field. Other listed labs cluster near 50% or lower due to limited verified updates or benchmark results in the past month. Key catalysts ahead include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October close, though historical patterns show leaderboard stability once a clear leader emerges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 84%
OpenAI 10%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$20,633 Vol.
$20,633 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
84%
OpenAI
10%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 84%
OpenAI 10%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$20,633 Vol.
$20,633 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$9,026 Vol.
84%
OpenAI
$2,945 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$435 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
1%
$411 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$386 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$465 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$498 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$471 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$445 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$433 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$481 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$481 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$494 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$492 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$445 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$427 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 83.5% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard at end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases that have delivered leading scores across core benchmarks like reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. This positioning stems from consistent frontier performance and iterative improvements that outpace competitors in independent evaluations, while OpenAI sits at just 10% amid slower recent gains relative to the field. Other listed labs cluster near 50% or lower due to limited verified updates or benchmark results in the past month. Key catalysts ahead include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October close, though historical patterns show leaderboard stability once a clear leader emerges.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$20,633Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 83.5% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard at end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases that have delivered leading scores across core benchmarks like reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. This positioning stems from consistent frontier performance and iterative improvements that outpace competitors in independent evaluations, while OpenAI sits at just 10% amid slower recent gains relative to the field. Other listed labs cluster near 50% or lower due to limited verified updates or benchmark results in the past month. Key catalysts ahead include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October close, though historical patterns show leaderboard stability once a clear leader emerges.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$20,633Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 83.5% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard at end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases that have delivered leading scores across core benchmarks like reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. This positioning stems from consistent frontier performance and iterative improvements that outpace competitors in independent evaluations, while OpenAI sits at just 10% amid slower recent gains relative to the field. Other listed labs cluster near 50% or lower due to limited verified updates or benchmark results in the past month. Key catalysts ahead include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October close, though historical patterns show leaderboard stability once a clear leader emerges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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