Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 64% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by recent Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5.1 releases that demonstrate strong formal reasoning and proof-generation capabilities on competition-level problems. Traders are pricing in Anthropic's edge from documented advances in theorem formalization and consistent high scores on math-heavy evaluations, where its models have recently outperformed rivals in targeted benchmarks. OpenAI follows at 35.5% amid strong o3 and GPT-5 series results on AIME and MATH-500, though recent reports of overlapping research approaches have introduced some uncertainty. Lower odds for Google, DeepSeek, Moonshot, and others reflect fewer confirmed near-term updates or benchmark leads in the Mathematics category. Key catalysts include any October model drops or LiveBench refreshes that could shift category leadership before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 64%
OpenAI 36%
Google 2.7%
MiniMax <1%
$21,620 Vol.
$21,620 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
64%
OpenAI
36%
3%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 36%
Google 2.7%
MiniMax <1%
$21,620 Vol.
$21,620 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$5,372 Vol.
64%
OpenAI
$6,430 Vol.
36%
$1,473 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$488 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$518 Vol.
1%
Meta
$501 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$475 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$390 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$858 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$518 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$479 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$586 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$454 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$386 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$562 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$283 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$339 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$459 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$509 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 64% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by recent Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5.1 releases that demonstrate strong formal reasoning and proof-generation capabilities on competition-level problems. Traders are pricing in Anthropic's edge from documented advances in theorem formalization and consistent high scores on math-heavy evaluations, where its models have recently outperformed rivals in targeted benchmarks. OpenAI follows at 35.5% amid strong o3 and GPT-5 series results on AIME and MATH-500, though recent reports of overlapping research approaches have introduced some uncertainty. Lower odds for Google, DeepSeek, Moonshot, and others reflect fewer confirmed near-term updates or benchmark leads in the Mathematics category. Key catalysts include any October model drops or LiveBench refreshes that could shift category leadership before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$21,620Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 64% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by recent Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5.1 releases that demonstrate strong formal reasoning and proof-generation capabilities on competition-level problems. Traders are pricing in Anthropic's edge from documented advances in theorem formalization and consistent high scores on math-heavy evaluations, where its models have recently outperformed rivals in targeted benchmarks. OpenAI follows at 35.5% amid strong o3 and GPT-5 series results on AIME and MATH-500, though recent reports of overlapping research approaches have introduced some uncertainty. Lower odds for Google, DeepSeek, Moonshot, and others reflect fewer confirmed near-term updates or benchmark leads in the Mathematics category. Key catalysts include any October model drops or LiveBench refreshes that could shift category leadership before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$21,620Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 64% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by recent Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5.1 releases that demonstrate strong formal reasoning and proof-generation capabilities on competition-level problems. Traders are pricing in Anthropic's edge from documented advances in theorem formalization and consistent high scores on math-heavy evaluations, where its models have recently outperformed rivals in targeted benchmarks. OpenAI follows at 35.5% amid strong o3 and GPT-5 series results on AIME and MATH-500, though recent reports of overlapping research approaches have introduced some uncertainty. Lower odds for Google, DeepSeek, Moonshot, and others reflect fewer confirmed near-term updates or benchmark leads in the Mathematics category. Key catalysts include any October model drops or LiveBench refreshes that could shift category leadership before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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