Anthropic holds an 85% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market through end-October 2026 because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series have posted leading or near-leading scores on related coding benchmarks, including strong results on SWE-bench Verified, CursorBench, and agentic coding tasks. Traders view these models' consistent edge in multi-file reasoning and code generation as likely to translate to the LiveBench coding subset, especially given OpenAI's more modest 8.6% odds despite GPT-5.6 leadership in the broader June 2026 LiveBench snapshot. Recent September updates to comparable leaderboards like LiveCodeBench show Chinese models gaining ground, yet no confirmed LiveBench Coding refresh has shifted sentiment away from Anthropic's demonstrated capabilities. Key catalysts ahead include any new frontier releases or official LiveBench data drops before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 87%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$18,501 Vol.
$18,501 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$18,501 Vol.
$18,501 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$6,754 Vol.
87%
OpenAI
$3,089 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$520 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$552 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$455 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$424 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 85% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market through end-October 2026 because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series have posted leading or near-leading scores on related coding benchmarks, including strong results on SWE-bench Verified, CursorBench, and agentic coding tasks. Traders view these models' consistent edge in multi-file reasoning and code generation as likely to translate to the LiveBench coding subset, especially given OpenAI's more modest 8.6% odds despite GPT-5.6 leadership in the broader June 2026 LiveBench snapshot. Recent September updates to comparable leaderboards like LiveCodeBench show Chinese models gaining ground, yet no confirmed LiveBench Coding refresh has shifted sentiment away from Anthropic's demonstrated capabilities. Key catalysts ahead include any new frontier releases or official LiveBench data drops before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$18,501Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 85% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market through end-October 2026 because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series have posted leading or near-leading scores on related coding benchmarks, including strong results on SWE-bench Verified, CursorBench, and agentic coding tasks. Traders view these models' consistent edge in multi-file reasoning and code generation as likely to translate to the LiveBench coding subset, especially given OpenAI's more modest 8.6% odds despite GPT-5.6 leadership in the broader June 2026 LiveBench snapshot. Recent September updates to comparable leaderboards like LiveCodeBench show Chinese models gaining ground, yet no confirmed LiveBench Coding refresh has shifted sentiment away from Anthropic's demonstrated capabilities. Key catalysts ahead include any new frontier releases or official LiveBench data drops before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$18,501Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 85% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market through end-October 2026 because its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series have posted leading or near-leading scores on related coding benchmarks, including strong results on SWE-bench Verified, CursorBench, and agentic coding tasks. Traders view these models' consistent edge in multi-file reasoning and code generation as likely to translate to the LiveBench coding subset, especially given OpenAI's more modest 8.6% odds despite GPT-5.6 leadership in the broader June 2026 LiveBench snapshot. Recent September updates to comparable leaderboards like LiveCodeBench show Chinese models gaining ground, yet no confirmed LiveBench Coding refresh has shifted sentiment away from Anthropic's demonstrated capabilities. Key catalysts ahead include any new frontier releases or official LiveBench data drops before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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