Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Mythos-class large language models have driven the strong trader consensus reflected in its 83.5% implied probability, with these models posting leading scores on benchmarks such as BenchAlign and strong results in agentic workflows, coding, and reasoning tasks. Competitive positioning stems from consistent outperformance versus OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants through September 2026, supported by rapid iteration and demonstrated capabilities in areas like tool use and long-context handling. Lower odds for OpenAI at 7.8% and Google at 7.3% align with slower perceived gains in recent independent evaluations, while other labs trail further behind. With resolution tied to end-of-October leaderboard performance, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the coming weeks could still influence final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 84%
OpenAI 7.8%
Google 7.6%
Meta 1.4%
$245,009 Vol.
$245,009 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
84%
OpenAI
8%
8%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 84%
OpenAI 7.8%
Google 7.6%
Meta 1.4%
$245,009 Vol.
$245,009 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$44,235 Vol.
84%
OpenAI
$25,810 Vol.
8%
$22,028 Vol.
8%
Meta
$22,773 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$17,242 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$18,717 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,721 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,866 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$14,162 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,751 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Mythos-class large language models have driven the strong trader consensus reflected in its 83.5% implied probability, with these models posting leading scores on benchmarks such as BenchAlign and strong results in agentic workflows, coding, and reasoning tasks. Competitive positioning stems from consistent outperformance versus OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants through September 2026, supported by rapid iteration and demonstrated capabilities in areas like tool use and long-context handling. Lower odds for OpenAI at 7.8% and Google at 7.3% align with slower perceived gains in recent independent evaluations, while other labs trail further behind. With resolution tied to end-of-October leaderboard performance, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the coming weeks could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$245,009Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Mythos-class large language models have driven the strong trader consensus reflected in its 83.5% implied probability, with these models posting leading scores on benchmarks such as BenchAlign and strong results in agentic workflows, coding, and reasoning tasks. Competitive positioning stems from consistent outperformance versus OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants through September 2026, supported by rapid iteration and demonstrated capabilities in areas like tool use and long-context handling. Lower odds for OpenAI at 7.8% and Google at 7.3% align with slower perceived gains in recent independent evaluations, while other labs trail further behind. With resolution tied to end-of-October leaderboard performance, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the coming weeks could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$245,009Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Mythos-class large language models have driven the strong trader consensus reflected in its 83.5% implied probability, with these models posting leading scores on benchmarks such as BenchAlign and strong results in agentic workflows, coding, and reasoning tasks. Competitive positioning stems from consistent outperformance versus OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants through September 2026, supported by rapid iteration and demonstrated capabilities in areas like tool use and long-context handling. Lower odds for OpenAI at 7.8% and Google at 7.3% align with slower perceived gains in recent independent evaluations, while other labs trail further behind. With resolution tied to end-of-October leaderboard performance, any new model drops or benchmark shifts in the coming weeks could still influence final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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