Traders assign Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by recent Claude large language model iterations that have delivered competitive benchmark scores in reasoning, coding, and safety evaluations. These results have reinforced its standing against faster-moving rivals in the crowded AI landscape. Google sits at 11.0% on the back of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, while OpenAI at 1.8% and Meta at 1.6% reflect more limited recent gains in public leaderboards. Upcoming model releases, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations before the deadline remain the main swing factors that could alter the current consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 85%
Google 11%
OpenAI 1.7%
Meta 1.6%
$51,234 Vol.
$51,234 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
85%
11%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
2%
xAI
1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 85%
Google 11%
OpenAI 1.7%
Meta 1.6%
$51,234 Vol.
$51,234 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$19,663 Vol.
85%
$6,283 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$4,287 Vol.
2%
Meta
$3,936 Vol.
2%
xAI
$2,467 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$2,607 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,384 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,208 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,094 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$893 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,894 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,560 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,291 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$662 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by recent Claude large language model iterations that have delivered competitive benchmark scores in reasoning, coding, and safety evaluations. These results have reinforced its standing against faster-moving rivals in the crowded AI landscape. Google sits at 11.0% on the back of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, while OpenAI at 1.8% and Meta at 1.6% reflect more limited recent gains in public leaderboards. Upcoming model releases, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations before the deadline remain the main swing factors that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$51,234Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by recent Claude large language model iterations that have delivered competitive benchmark scores in reasoning, coding, and safety evaluations. These results have reinforced its standing against faster-moving rivals in the crowded AI landscape. Google sits at 11.0% on the back of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, while OpenAI at 1.8% and Meta at 1.6% reflect more limited recent gains in public leaderboards. Upcoming model releases, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations before the deadline remain the main swing factors that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$51,234Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the third-ranked AI model by end of June, driven by recent Claude large language model iterations that have delivered competitive benchmark scores in reasoning, coding, and safety evaluations. These results have reinforced its standing against faster-moving rivals in the crowded AI landscape. Google sits at 11.0% on the back of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, while OpenAI at 1.8% and Meta at 1.6% reflect more limited recent gains in public leaderboards. Upcoming model releases, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations before the deadline remain the main swing factors that could alter the current consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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