Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 96% market-implied odds, as these models currently lead multiple independent leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign score and LMSYS Arena evaluations with style control enabled. Strong performance on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks, combined with rapid iteration through mid-2026 and no comparable frontier upgrades from competitors in the past month, underpins trader consensus that an Anthropic model will rank highest by month-end. A last-minute GPT-5.6 Sol refresh or Gemini 3.7 breakthrough that overtakes the current top scores could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 96.4%
OpenAI 2.7%
Google 1.3%
Bytedance 1.1%
$24,694 Vol.
$24,694 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
3%
1%
Bytedance
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.4%
OpenAI 2.7%
Google 1.3%
Bytedance 1.1%
$24,694 Vol.
$24,694 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
$5,654 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$2,843 Vol.
3%
$2,046 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$608 Vol.
1%
Meta
$1,288 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,011 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,319 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 96% market-implied odds, as these models currently lead multiple independent leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign score and LMSYS Arena evaluations with style control enabled. Strong performance on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks, combined with rapid iteration through mid-2026 and no comparable frontier upgrades from competitors in the past month, underpins trader consensus that an Anthropic model will rank highest by month-end. A last-minute GPT-5.6 Sol refresh or Gemini 3.7 breakthrough that overtakes the current top scores could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volumen
$24,694Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 96% market-implied odds, as these models currently lead multiple independent leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign score and LMSYS Arena evaluations with style control enabled. Strong performance on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks, combined with rapid iteration through mid-2026 and no comparable frontier upgrades from competitors in the past month, underpins trader consensus that an Anthropic model will rank highest by month-end. A last-minute GPT-5.6 Sol refresh or Gemini 3.7 breakthrough that overtakes the current top scores could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$24,694Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 96% market-implied odds, as these models currently lead multiple independent leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign score and LMSYS Arena evaluations with style control enabled. Strong performance on coding, agentic, and reasoning benchmarks, combined with rapid iteration through mid-2026 and no comparable frontier upgrades from competitors in the past month, underpins trader consensus that an Anthropic model will rank highest by month-end. A last-minute GPT-5.6 Sol refresh or Gemini 3.7 breakthrough that overtakes the current top scores could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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