Romania's ongoing coalition negotiations follow the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the Bolojan caretaker government, after PSD ministers withdrew amid disputes over austerity reforms and then partnered with AUR to oust the pro-European administration. President Nicușor Dan has prioritized rebuilding a mainstream pro-EU majority excluding AUR, creating fluid talks among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR over cabinet posts, fiscal policy, and leadership. The closely matched probabilities across combinations such as PSD+PNL, expanded grand coalitions, or PNL+USR variants reflect this bargaining uncertainty, competing party demands, and the risk that stalled talks could force alternative alignments or renewed parliamentary pressure before a stable government emerges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWhich coalition will form the next Romanian government?
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
PSD + PNL 45%
PSD + PNL + AUR 38.2%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 6.2%
UDMR 5.5%
$13,131 Vol.
$13,131 Vol.
31 may 2026
PSD + PNL
45%
PSD + PNL + AUR
38%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
21%
UDMR
5%
USR
5%
PNL
23%
PSD + USR + UDMR
2%
AUR
2%
PNL + AUR
2%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
19%
USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
<1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
11%
PSD + UDMR
41%
PNL + USR
45%
PSD + PNL + USR
38%
PNL + USR + UDMR
41%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
28%
Other
35%
PSD
37%
PSD + USR
41%
PSD + AUR
45%
PNL + UDMR
33%
USR + UDMR
35%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
48%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
37%
PSD + PNL 45%
PSD + PNL + AUR 38.2%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 6.2%
UDMR 5.5%
$13,131 Vol.
$13,131 Vol.
31 may 2026
PSD + PNL
$118 Vol.
45%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$87 Vol.
38%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$305 Vol.
21%
UDMR
$2,026 Vol.
5%
USR
$1,682 Vol.
5%
PNL
$252 Vol.
23%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$440 Vol.
2%
AUR
$504 Vol.
2%
PNL + AUR
$422 Vol.
2%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$374 Vol.
19%
USR + AUR
$649 Vol.
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$475 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
$303 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$366 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$371 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
$302 Vol.
1%
UDMR + AUR
$497 Vol.
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$560 Vol.
<1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$324 Vol.
11%
PSD + UDMR
$61 Vol.
41%
PNL + USR
$145 Vol.
45%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Vol.
38%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$318 Vol.
41%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$351 Vol.
28%
Other
$463 Vol.
35%
PSD
$56 Vol.
37%
PSD + USR
$461 Vol.
41%
PSD + AUR
$152 Vol.
45%
PNL + UDMR
$163 Vol.
33%
USR + UDMR
$408 Vol.
35%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$89 Vol.
48%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$381 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's ongoing coalition negotiations follow the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the Bolojan caretaker government, after PSD ministers withdrew amid disputes over austerity reforms and then partnered with AUR to oust the pro-European administration. President Nicușor Dan has prioritized rebuilding a mainstream pro-EU majority excluding AUR, creating fluid talks among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR over cabinet posts, fiscal policy, and leadership. The closely matched probabilities across combinations such as PSD+PNL, expanded grand coalitions, or PNL+USR variants reflect this bargaining uncertainty, competing party demands, and the risk that stalled talks could force alternative alignments or renewed parliamentary pressure before a stable government emerges.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Volumen
$13,131Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania's ongoing coalition negotiations follow the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the Bolojan caretaker government, after PSD ministers withdrew amid disputes over austerity reforms and then partnered with AUR to oust the pro-European administration. President Nicușor Dan has prioritized rebuilding a mainstream pro-EU majority excluding AUR, creating fluid talks among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR over cabinet posts, fiscal policy, and leadership. The closely matched probabilities across combinations such as PSD+PNL, expanded grand coalitions, or PNL+USR variants reflect this bargaining uncertainty, competing party demands, and the risk that stalled talks could force alternative alignments or renewed parliamentary pressure before a stable government emerges.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Volumen
$13,131Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Romania's ongoing coalition negotiations follow the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the Bolojan caretaker government, after PSD ministers withdrew amid disputes over austerity reforms and then partnered with AUR to oust the pro-European administration. President Nicușor Dan has prioritized rebuilding a mainstream pro-EU majority excluding AUR, creating fluid talks among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR over cabinet posts, fiscal policy, and leadership. The closely matched probabilities across combinations such as PSD+PNL, expanded grand coalitions, or PNL+USR variants reflect this bargaining uncertainty, competing party demands, and the risk that stalled talks could force alternative alignments or renewed parliamentary pressure before a stable government emerges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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