Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including naval blockades that have slashed Iranian oil exports from roughly 2 million barrels per day to near zero, combined with war-related damage to energy infrastructure and fresh sanctions, have driven the rial to record lows near 2.68 million per USD amid inflation exceeding 70 percent. Central bank interventions using up to $2 billion in reserves and indirect talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz introduce near-term uncertainty over export recovery or partial sanctions relief by year-end. These dynamics, alongside elevated global oil prices and potential diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations before December, sustain a tight distribution of trader probabilities across the 2.0-3.5 million range, reflecting divergent assessments of how quickly hard-currency inflows might stabilize or further weaken the currency.