US-China tensions and competitive priorities in advanced AI development drive the 93.7% market-implied odds against an agreement to pace the frontier in 2026. Following the September 2026 Trump-Xi summit, the sides established an AI dialogue mechanism and incident communications channel focused on risks, benefits, and misuse prevention, but both leaders have emphasized continued acceleration rather than mutual restraint on large language model training or capabilities. Trump has repeatedly stated the US will not slow progress while leading China, and recent US voluntary industry accords alongside Chinese centralized safety guidelines reflect parallel pushes forward amid rivalry. The November APEC talks in Shenzhen represent the main near-term catalyst that could shift sentiment, though deep mutual distrust and incentives to maintain technological edges make substantive pacing unlikely without major unforeseen incidents or policy reversals.