Multiple FDIC-supervised closures have already occurred in 2026, including the fifth failure of Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21, following earlier resolutions of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, Kentland Federal Savings and Loan, and Small Business Bank. This steady pace of small-community-bank insolvencies, driven by asset-quality pressures in commercial real estate and localized credit losses, has pushed the market-implied probability of at least one failure by year-end to 100 percent. With resolution already confirmed multiple times this year, the outcome hinges on no reversal of the existing tally rather than future events, though an unexpected stabilization of distressed portfolios or regulatory forbearance could theoretically alter the count if prior closures were reclassified.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
>99% probabilidad
$7,952 Vol.
$7,952 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
>99% probabilidad
$7,952 Vol.
$7,952 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Multiple FDIC-supervised closures have already occurred in 2026, including the fifth failure of Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21, following earlier resolutions of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, Kentland Federal Savings and Loan, and Small Business Bank. This steady pace of small-community-bank insolvencies, driven by asset-quality pressures in commercial real estate and localized credit losses, has pushed the market-implied probability of at least one failure by year-end to 100 percent. With resolution already confirmed multiple times this year, the outcome hinges on no reversal of the existing tally rather than future events, though an unexpected stabilization of distressed portfolios or regulatory forbearance could theoretically alter the count if prior closures were reclassified.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volumen
$7,952Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Multiple FDIC-supervised closures have already occurred in 2026, including the fifth failure of Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21, following earlier resolutions of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, Kentland Federal Savings and Loan, and Small Business Bank. This steady pace of small-community-bank insolvencies, driven by asset-quality pressures in commercial real estate and localized credit losses, has pushed the market-implied probability of at least one failure by year-end to 100 percent. With resolution already confirmed multiple times this year, the outcome hinges on no reversal of the existing tally rather than future events, though an unexpected stabilization of distressed portfolios or regulatory forbearance could theoretically alter the count if prior closures were reclassified.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volumen
$7,952Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Multiple FDIC-supervised closures have already occurred in 2026, including the fifth failure of Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21, following earlier resolutions of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, Kentland Federal Savings and Loan, and Small Business Bank. This steady pace of small-community-bank insolvencies, driven by asset-quality pressures in commercial real estate and localized credit losses, has pushed the market-implied probability of at least one failure by year-end to 100 percent. With resolution already confirmed multiple times this year, the outcome hinges on no reversal of the existing tally rather than future events, though an unexpected stabilization of distressed portfolios or regulatory forbearance could theoretically alter the count if prior closures were reclassified.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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