Ongoing federal investigations into Minnesota's handling of fraud in federally funded social services programs and alleged obstruction of immigration enforcement form the core driver of trader positioning on whether Tim Walz faces charges before 2027. A House Oversight Committee report detailed extensive improper payments and referred Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison for potential criminal review, prompting a June 2026 referral by Vice President Vance to the DOJ. Separate probes by the DOJ, Treasury, and other agencies examine statements and policies during immigration operations, though a federal judge quashed related subpoenas in June as politically motivated. Recent October 2026 subpoenas to state officials have renewed attention, yet no charges have been filed. Resolution hinges on whether probes advance to indictments amid ongoing congressional scrutiny and court oversight.