Traders see a wide-open race for third place on arena.ai's Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across many labs and only modest separation for Z.ai and Google. This reflects the narrow performance gaps among Chinese developers—Z.ai, Moonshot, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Alibaba—and established players like Google, where recent model updates have produced incremental Elo gains in math-specific human preference voting. OpenAI trails in the pricing at 21% amid competition from specialized reasoning releases elsewhere. Key swing factors include any new frontier math models or fine-tunes before resolution, as even small leaderboard shifts from ongoing training runs or benchmark-focused deployments can reorder the middle ranks in this fast-moving category.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoZ.ai 36.1%
Google 36%
OpenAI 21%
Alibaba 6%
$40,353 Vol.
$40,353 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Z.ai
36%
36%
OpenAI
21%
Alibaba
6%
Moonshot
2%
Baidu
1%
Anthropic
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Z.ai 36.1%
Google 36%
OpenAI 21%
Alibaba 6%
$40,353 Vol.
$40,353 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Z.ai
$2,190 Vol.
36%
$10,688 Vol.
36%
OpenAI
$3,910 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$10,601 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$987 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$834 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$810 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,284 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$1,640 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$787 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$769 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$789 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$806 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$812 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$855 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$632 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$646 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$422 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a wide-open race for third place on arena.ai's Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across many labs and only modest separation for Z.ai and Google. This reflects the narrow performance gaps among Chinese developers—Z.ai, Moonshot, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Alibaba—and established players like Google, where recent model updates have produced incremental Elo gains in math-specific human preference voting. OpenAI trails in the pricing at 21% amid competition from specialized reasoning releases elsewhere. Key swing factors include any new frontier math models or fine-tunes before resolution, as even small leaderboard shifts from ongoing training runs or benchmark-focused deployments can reorder the middle ranks in this fast-moving category.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volumen
$40,353Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a wide-open race for third place on arena.ai's Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across many labs and only modest separation for Z.ai and Google. This reflects the narrow performance gaps among Chinese developers—Z.ai, Moonshot, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Alibaba—and established players like Google, where recent model updates have produced incremental Elo gains in math-specific human preference voting. OpenAI trails in the pricing at 21% amid competition from specialized reasoning releases elsewhere. Key swing factors include any new frontier math models or fine-tunes before resolution, as even small leaderboard shifts from ongoing training runs or benchmark-focused deployments can reorder the middle ranks in this fast-moving category.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$40,353Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a wide-open race for third place on arena.ai's Text Arena Math leaderboard by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across many labs and only modest separation for Z.ai and Google. This reflects the narrow performance gaps among Chinese developers—Z.ai, Moonshot, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Alibaba—and established players like Google, where recent model updates have produced incremental Elo gains in math-specific human preference voting. OpenAI trails in the pricing at 21% amid competition from specialized reasoning releases elsewhere. Key swing factors include any new frontier math models or fine-tunes before resolution, as even small leaderboard shifts from ongoing training runs or benchmark-focused deployments can reorder the middle ranks in this fast-moving category.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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