Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, now in its seventh month, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows pre-crisis. As of mid-September 2026, daily AIS-tracked transits remain in single digits—around four to nine vessels versus a pre-war average exceeding 100—reflecting IRGC route controls, repeated vessel strikes, dark transits, and war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels that render most operations uneconomic. Elevated Brent crude prices near $105–108 per barrel price in sustained supply constraints, while recent attacks and U-turns underscore that partial reopenings since June have failed to restore normal volumes. With roughly 75 days until the November 30 resolution date and no clear de-escalation catalysts on the horizon, trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability that throughput will not recover to pre-crisis norms, consistent with the market’s assessment of entrenched barriers to normalization.