The recent September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election produced a fragmented Landtag, with the AfD securing 39 of 83 seats on 43.8% of the vote but falling short of an absolute majority, while the CDU dropped sharply to 15 seats. This outcome has left government formation stalled ahead of the December Minister-President vote, as other parties largely rule out cooperation with the AfD and the CDU has signaled it will vacate the chamber to block any defections. Under the state constitution, failure to elect a premier in the first two rounds could trigger a dissolution vote, yet traders assign an 84% probability against a snap election occurring in 2026, reflecting the caretaker government's continuity, BSW's abstention signals, and the low likelihood of sufficient cross-party support for immediate dissolution so soon after the regular poll.