**Saudi Arabia's direct ground involvement in Sanaa remains unlikely in the near term amid the ongoing Yemen escalation.** The Houthis continue to hold the capital and much of northern Yemen, while Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched Operation Dawn of Yemen in early October 2026 with Saudi air support to push back Houthi gains along the Red Sea coast and toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Recent Houthi ballistic missile and drone strikes on Saudi airports (including Riyadh and Abha) have killed civilians and prompted defensive measures, including Pakistani forces stationed in the kingdom, but Saudi operations have centered on airstrikes, targeting support, and backing Yemeni ground units rather than deploying regular Saudi troops into Houthi-held territory. Market pricing reflects the distinction in resolution criteria—only verified Saudi regular armed forces count, excluding coalition partners or proxies—and the absence of any confirmed Saudi ground advance toward Sanaa itself despite the broader offensive. Key near-term factors include the pace of coastal fighting, further Houthi cross-border attacks, and any shifts in Saudi or coalition ground commitments.